On President Obama's 100th day in office, it's clear he has won far more than he has lost during his time in the White House.
Among his victories: passage of his $787 billion stimulus package and his budget blueprint, stratospheric approval ratings in a bevy of national polls, a well-received (on both sides of the pond) European trip and yesterday's successful recruitment of Sen. Arlen Specter to switch parties.
The list of Obama's obvious losses is far shorter: the resignations of several Cabinet nominees and his indecision (critics would cal it flip-floppery) on how to best handle CIA officials involved in harsh interrogation tactics being the most prominent.
Presidential history suggests that winners in the first 100 days don't always go on to win the bigger fights; former president Jimmy Carter had approval ratings higher than those of Obama in the first 100 days of his presidency but ultimately faltered badly and lost his reelection bid in 1980.
While Obama's first 100 days are -- without question -- a success, potential problems still exist: the gap between his personal popularity and the popularity of his policies, the burgeoning national debt and the fact that no clear evidence exists that the country is emerging from its economic morass any time soon.
Aside from Obama, who else won and lost in the first 100 days? Our take -- gleaned from conversations with dozens of political operatives as well as our own observations -- is below.
Have winners and losers of your own? The comments section is open for business. We will pull some of the best and/or most common winners and losers from comments section for an addendum post later in the day.
WINNERS
Rahm Emanuel: Talk to anyone inside the White House and they lavish praise on Emanuel, the field general who takes Obama's ideas and turns them into political reality. Emanuel is the person more responsible than anyone else for laying out how the first 100 days would play out and it's hard to imagine things having gone much better for the administration.
Rush Limbaugh: El Rushbo has been the most prominent and visible critic of the Obama administration over the first 100 days -- with the possible exception of former vice president Dick Cheney. Is this great news for Republicans who believe that the base of the party already has too much power and that the goal of the next two years is to find a message for independents? No. Is it great news for Limbaugh (and his bottom line)? Yes. Whether you like Rush or hate him, he has become appointment listening for almost everyone in Washington.
Harry Reid: The Senate Majority Leader started the 111th Congress somewhat slowly but man did he close strong. Reid's shepherding of the Specter switch shows his unique understanding of how relationships often trump party in the Senate. As a result, he is now likely to spend 18 months (or so) with 60 Democratic seats -- a level of power Democrats have not enjoyed for more than 30 years. Republicans' inability (so far) to find a credible challenger to Reid for the 2010 election also strengthens his hand going forward.
Populism: As the furor over the AIG bailouts and the energy created in some quarters by the anti-tax tea parties reveal, populism -- especially of the economic variety -- is back! People of both partisan stripes are mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore and both parties are working to bottle that rage to their electoral benefit. Neither side has a natural populist in its top ranks; Obama is an unnatural populist (at best) and Republicans are still struggling to decide who's really in charge. The anger out there in the country is real though and both sides need to heed it.
Republican Governors: With Republicans in Congress rendered almost entirely meaningless over the first 100 days (and likely to become even more marginalized with the Specter switch), the Republican governors from across the country have stepped into far more prominent leadership roles. South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford has been on the forefront of the opposition to Obama's economic plans and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is widely touted as the smartest strategist in Republican politics at the moment. The Republican Governors Association deserves kudos as well -- on offense in Virginia and New Jersey, two 2009 races that could give the party much needed momentum headed into the midterms.
Andrew Cuomo: The son also rises. Cuomo, New York's attorney general, emerged as the white knight of the AIG scandal and, in so doing, positioned himself as the favorite to be the next governor of New York. Will he run? Gov. David Paterson (D) is giving no signs that he plans to step aside but Cuomo, who managed his father's gubernatorial campaigns, knows how to read a poll -- especially one that shows him drubbing the incumbent.
Mitt Romney: The former governor of Massachusetts has done everything right in terms of positioning himself as the leading GOP contender against Obama in 2012. He kept his political team -- both in Washington and Boston -- largely intact, used his political action committee to flex his fundraising muscle and used his background in business to criticize the growth in government spending under the new administration. And, as the fight over health care begins to gear up over the summer and into the fall, Romney is already in place to emerge as the plan's leading GOP critic.
Twitter: On Jan. 20, Twitter was just a quaint thing that a few techie nerds -- including the Fix! -- used. Now, it is a worldwide phenomenon. Not bad for 100 days work.
LOSERS
Sarah Palin: The Alaska governor has struggled mightily to balance her national ambitions with her current job. From the "she's is/she's out" mishandling of her attendance at a Republican party event is Washington to the decision by her fundraiser to step aside, the first 100 days have been an unmitigated disaster for the former vice presidential nominee. (And that's without even mentioning the whole Levi Johnston debacle for which we give Palin, a mother first, something of a pass.) Palin is rapidly becoming the butt of jokes among GOP operatives; she may not care but remember how powerful the chattering class is in the Invisible Primary. To win her party's nomination in 2012, Palin need to recruit some top tier talent and, right now, she would struggle to convince anyone at that level to sign on.
Tom Daschle: The former South Dakota Senator went from the man tasked with riding herd on Obama's number one legislative priority -- health care -- to someone likely relegated to the private sector for the remainder of his professional career. The tax revelations that ultimately sank Daschle are the sort of thing that he, as a savvy and prominent politician, should have seen coming from a mile away. Daschle's decision to step aside had consequences well beyond him -- setting back the planning for the coming health care battle in Congress by months.
Mitch McConnell/John Boehner: Neither of the two Republican leaders in Congress did much of anything to distinguish themselves over the first 100 days. Boehner, the House leader, watched as Minority Whip Eric Cantor (Va.) eclipsed him as the most visible face of the party and wasn't able to bring home a victory in a very winnable special election in Upstate New York. Not only did McConnell lose Specter but he also spent an inordinate amount of time battling with Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning (R) over whether or not the Hall of Fame pitcher should seek reelection. The end result of those spats? An angry Bunning committed to running for reelection and so badly damaged politically that even if he wins the primary, the seat is almost certainly a goner next fall.
Chris Dodd: Did anyone -- with the possible exception of Palin -- have a worse first 100 days than the Connecticut Democrat? It's hard to imagine who. Already weakened politically by his quixotic presidential candidacy in 2008 and his ties to the failed mortgage giant Countrywide, Dodd found himself at the center of the storm caused by the massive bonuses given to AIG executives. His poll numbers in reliably Democratic Connecticut have tanked badly and he is certain to face serious Republican opposition -- in the form of former Rep. Rob Simmons or former Ambassador Tom Foley -- in 2010. The good news for Dodd? The bleeding has stopped (for now).
EFCA: The Employee Free Choice Act, once thought to be THE fight of the 111th Congress, disappeared not with a bang but with a whimper when Specter, seeking to protect his right flank in a Republican primary, came out against it. And, although he has now switched political teams, Specter made clear in his statement on Tuesday that he still opposed EFCA. Labor operatives are optimistic that with Specter now caucusing with Democrats that some sort of deal can be worked out but much work would have to be done to convince other members of the party -- Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, for one -- to get behind the legislation.
George W. Bush: The policies of Bush 43 -- from Gitmo to the environment to Iraq -- have been dragged through the mud in the first 100 days of the Obama administration. And, far more surprisingly, few Republicans have taken up the Bush banner and led a counter-charge. Bush himself seems uninterested in wading into the political fray in any way, leaving his legacy protection to Dick Cheney and former White House deputy chief of staff Karl Rove.
Michael Steele: Steele's election in January as the chairman of the Republican National Committee was greeted with a sigh of relief by most GOPers. Finally, the party had recognized that it need faces of color atop its leadership pyramid and Steele was the perfect messenger -- savvy as a strategist, charismatic as a television guest -- to show the American public that the GOP was ready for change. The reality proved far different as Steele struggled to recover from a series of self-inflicted public relations wounds in his first weeks as chairman and watched as his promise to turn the New York special election into the first victory of a revived Republican party evaporated. The silver lining: Steele's RNC did a surprisingly good job raising money over the first three months of the year, a cash-collecting strength likely to keep those who would like to oust Steele at bay.
Comments